Population, Housing & Employment Projections Study
The City is undertaking a Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study for the City of Kingston and the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). The study is being managed by the Planning, Building and Licensing Department. The City has retained Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., as the consultant to undertake the study.
An update to the Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study is conducted every five years as the projections provide the foundation for the City's long-range land use, transportation, infrastructure and capital expenditure planning. The study was last updated in 2013.
The study projections are reflected in the City's Official Plan and have been used to inform other strategic planning documents such as the Water and Wastewater Master Plan, the Kingston Transportation Master Plan, the Active Transportation Master Plan, the Employment Land Strategy Review, the Commercial Land Review, and the Kingston Transit Five-Year Business Plan 2017-2021.
This study is particularly significant as the projections made in 2013 were substantially higher that experienced in the City as reported by Statistic's Canada's 2016 Census. As a result, this iteration of projections for the City of Kingston and Kingston CMA will include a thorough analysis as to why the 2016 Census data is at such odds with the 2013 projections.
A component of the study also includes an analysis of the City's rental market, which will identify trends and future change and supply requirements in the market, both primary (i.e. apartment rentals) and secondary (i.e. private dwelling rentals). Evaluating employment trends and providing insight into key employment sectors is also to be addressed in the study.
Public and stakeholder consultation is an important component of the study update.
The City hosted an Open House with a presentation made by the project consultant. The presentation provided an overview of the 2018 study objectives, process and key findings to date. City staff and the project consultant were also available to answer questions and receive comments about the project.
The study area includes the City of Kingston and the Kingston CMA, view the study map. The Kingston CMA includes the City and the Townships of South Frontenac, Loyalist and Frontenac Islands. The study will also offer insights into population, employment and housing trends that may be occurring within a broader (regional) context. In addition, the projections are expected to identify trends within subareas of the City, including the City's defined forty-eight (48) neighbourhoods and additional sub areas of the City including Kingston East, Kingston West, Kingston Central, Kingston North, the urban serviced area and rural area, as well as for municipal service catchment areas.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. will develop three estimates (low, medium and high) for population, housing and employment growth for the City and the CMA at 5 year intervals from the 2016 census data to the year 2046.
The main objectives of the Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study are listed as follows:
- To forecast the change in institutional population and non-institutional population presented in five-year intervals in the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston to 2046.
- To forecast "natural" population growth (births and deaths) in five-year intervals in the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston to 2046.
- To forecast the net migration rate in five-year intervals for the Kingston CMA and City of Kingston to 2046.
- To forecast the anticipated change in household size for the Kingston CMA and City of Kingston to 2046.
- To estimate the amount (both rental and ownership housing) and type of housing required to accommodate the projected change in population to 2046 for occupied and unoccupied dwelling units.
- To evaluate and identify trends and future change in the City of Kingston's rental market.
- To estimate student population change in the City of Kingston based on enrolment growth to local post-secondary institutions and to forecast the impact of change on housing demand to 2046.
- To forecast the amount and type of employment growth projected in five-year intervals for the Kingston CMA and the City of Kingston to 2046 and to further forecast this growth by various employment sub-sectors.
- To evaluate employment trends and provide commentary on what key industrial sectors and other priority areas should be the focus for economic development planning.
- To evaluate the factors responsible for the population discrepancies found in the 2013 projections and the 2016 Census, as well as what components of the 2013 study may still be valid.