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The City, with the assistance of Meridian Planning Consulting and The Centre for Spatial Economics (C4SE), has recently completed an update of the population, housing and employment projections. The projections are contained in the City of Kingston and Kingston CMA, Population, Housing and Employment Projection Study dated September 2013, updated to October 17, 2013.

Using the 2011 Census Data and considering a series of assumptions and trends, three different projection scenarios were defined - "low", "base (medium)" and "high" population, housing and employment projections for 5 year intervals from 2011 to 2041.

Some of the study's highlights are:

  • the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) includes the City of Kingston (population 123,410 in 2011), the Township of South Frontenac (18,110), the Township of Frontenac Islands (1,860) and Loyalist Township (16,220);
  • the total population of the CMA in 2011 was 159,600;
  • the City accounted for 77.3 percent of the population of the CMA in 2011.
  • since 1997 the population of the Kingston CMA has been growing
  • net natural population growth was negligible as births exceeded deaths by an average of only 144 per year
  • the number of people moving into the CMA vs. the number moving out was the area's major source of population growth, averaging 902 per year
  • domestic migration as opposed to international migration accounted for the lion's share of the Kingston CMA's population growth over this period
  • almost all of the Kingston CMA's economic base jobs are located in the City
  • the City has a highly diversified economic base with about one fifth dependent upon industry and the remaining four fifths distributed across federal administration, post-secondary education, specialized health care and tourism
  • jobs in agriculture and manufacturing have been declining for decades, a trend likely to continue
  • there is potential for economic base job growth in federal, specialized health, post-secondary education and tourism services
  • the Kingston area's economic base jobs will grow in the future but not as quickly as in faster growing and more populated centres such as the Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton metropolitan areas
  • the Kingston area population will grow for two decades followed by a gradual population decline shortly after 2031

 

Report Projections

City of Kingston 2011 - 2041 (Base/Medium Case)
  2011 2031 2041

Total Population

123,410

147,960

142,850

Number of Total Dwelling Units

52,010

63,810

63,490

Employed by Place of Work
(persons)

67,510

81,540

79,870

 

A list of years in the future